Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
