Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
